The windfall taxes on domestic crude oil production and fuel exports will generate close to $12 billion (Rs 94,800 crore) for the government in the remainder of the current fiscal while trimming profits of firms such as Reliance Industries Ltd and ONGC, Moody's Investors Service said Tuesday. On July 1, the government imposed windfall gain taxes on the export of petrol, diesel and aviation turbine fuel (ATF), and on the domestic production of crude oil. It has also mandated exporters to meet the requirements of the domestic market first.
Acutely conscious that he's left with less than four years to create his legacy, Trump is undoubtedly a man in a hurry, observes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
The oil industry experienced three upheavals between 1973 and 1991, which seem to be etched in the memory of the industry's decision makers. Naturally, at the sign of a new crisis, the decision makers like to dip into those tumultuous decades to find ways to deal with the new shock, in addition, of course, to expert reports and forecasts. So, the industry bigwigs turned the pages of history to get a peek into the future of oil price movements after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Israel attacked Gaza in 2023, Iran-linked Houthi rebels pounded tankers crossing the Red Sea in support of Palestine the same year, and Iran rained missiles on Israel in 2024.
Exports of 19 major commodities, including petroleum products, coal and marine items, saw growth in terms of volume during April 2023-February 2024, even as they witnessed contraction in value terms during the same period. Government officials said the rise in export volume despite a decline in value implies that these commodities show a stronger market demand.
The government on Tuesday increased the windfall profit tax on crude oil produced in the country and reduced the levy on exports of diesel. The tax, levied in the form of Special Additional Excise Duty or SAED, on domestically produced crude oil was increased to Rs 9,800 per tonne from Rs 9,050 a tonne, according to an official notification. SAED on the export of diesel was reduced to Rs 2 per litre from Rs 4 a litre and on jet fuel or ATF to nil from Rs 1, the notification said.
The commerce ministry is working on different scenarios to assess the possible fallout of reciprocal tariffs to be imposed by the US administration on April 2 on its key trading partners including India, sources said. US President Donald Trump has said that April 2 will be 'Liberation Day' as he plans to announce tariffs or import duties to bring down America's trade deficit, and promote the country's manufacturing.
Amid the ongoing global tariff war, Reserve Bank Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Wednesday said he is more worried about its impact on growth than inflation. Speaking to the media after presentation of the first bi-monthly monetary policy for the current financial year, Malhotra said, RBI has reduced the growth forecast for 2025-26 by 20 basis points to 6.5 per cent.
Here is a list of Q & As to explain these issues and implications of the US move.
From the Sensex firms, Tata Steel, Power Grid, NTPC, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Reliance Industries and Adani Ports were among the biggest gainers. Asian Paints and Tata Consultancy Services were the only laggards.
The Indian industry is paranoid about the USA's plan to impose reciprocal tariffs and wants early conclusion of a bilateral trade agreement, sources said on Wednesday. They said that the talks for the proposed bilateral trade agreement are going well.
With India making it clear that the US doesn't have enough spare capacity for crude oil, Washington, DC, now wants India to sign fixed-term liquefied natural gas (LNG) contracts with American producers, multiple sources in the know said.
As a panel of senior ministers deliberates on the need to review curbs on exports of some rice varieties, data shows that since outbound shipments saw restrictions in July-August last year, the non-basmati segment has suffered more than basmati exports. Sources said the panel is expected to soon deliberate on a few suggestions to ease the export curbs on some rice varieties due to higher-than-required stocks in the central pool. The panel, some observers feel, may also postpone the decision to ease the export curbs till a firm picture emerges on the latest kharif paddy sowing.
The government on Friday slapped an export tax on petrol, diesel and jet fuel (ATF) while also joining nations like the UK in imposing a windfall tax on crude oil produced locally. A Rs 6 per litre tax on export of petrol and ATF and Rs 13 per litre tax on export of diesel is effective from July 1, finance ministry notifications showed. Additionally, a Rs 23,250 per tonne tax was levied on crude oil produced domestically.
India, the world's third largest oil consuming and importing nation, in July bought $2.8 billion worth of crude oil from Russia, second only to China which remains the largest importer of Russian oil, a report said. Russia emerged as India's biggest supplier of crude oil, which is converted into fuels like petrol and diesel in refineries, after Russian oil was available on discount following some European nations shunning purchases from Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Indian stock markets have experienced some ups and downs in the first half of 2025. However, both the Nifty 50 and Sensex saw steady gains, supported by a healthy economy and better corporate earnings. In this article, we will look at the detailed performance of these key indices and explore the sectors that drove the market rally.
India and the visiting US officials have decided to hold a wrap-up session on Saturday morning to conclude the three-day talks on the proposed bilateral trade agreement, government sources said. They said the discussions are at a "very" early stage.
The weaker rupee will push the country's import bill due to higher payments for crude oil, coal, vegetable oil, gold, diamonds, electronics, machinery, plastics, and chemicals, economic think tank GTRI said on Friday. Citing an example, it said the depreciating domestic currency will increase India's gold import bill, especially as global gold prices have jumped 31.25 per cent, rising from $65,877 per kg in January 2024 to $86,464 per kg in January 2025.
India's merchandise exports in April 2024 marginally rose to $34.99 billion from $34.62 billion in the year-ago month, according to government data released on Wednesday. Imports too increased to $54.09 billion from $49.06 billion in April 2023.
Since October, FPIs have offloaded Indian equities worth Rs 2.1 trillion.
India maintains "high" import duties on a wide range of American goods such as agricultural items, drug formulations, and alcoholic beverages, besides imposing non-tariif barriers, a US report has said. A day before announcing reciprocal tariffs, the US Trade Representative (USTR) released the 2025 National Trade Estimate (NTE) Report on March 31.
Investors should avoid making drastic changes to their asset allocation during a market correction.
Putin is keen on establishing a good personal rapport with Trump and anchor a meaningful US-Russia partnership, realistic enough to accept that Trump is as good an American president as Russia would ever get, observes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
'I am not an aspiration-oriented politician.' 'This is the time to redefine politics.' 'Politics of power is not real politics.'
India and the US have decided to hold sector-specific talks in the coming weeks to finalise the structure of the proposed bilateral trade agreement (BTA), the government said on Saturday. The engagement between the two countries came in the backdrop of the USA's threat to impose reciprocal tariffs on its key trading partners, including India, on April 2.
Russia on Thursday said it was not bothered at a possible price cap on its crude oil proposed by the West, saying Moscow will negotiate directly with its partners like India and China as the price should be decided between the producers and consumers, and "not someone who just decided to punish someone." Members of the G7 have agreed to impose a price cap on Russian oil in a bid to hit Moscow's ability to finance the war in Ukraine. Countries want to reach an agreement ahead of December 5, when Europe's embargo on Russian crude travelling by sea takes effect.
India's exports to Iran have been falling over the last one year, amid decline in rupee reserves of the West Asian economy. Going ahead, the possibility of augmenting exports to Iran may not be easy for India, considering the geopolitical tensions - Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas conflicts - and the West Asian country's support for Russia and Hamas, people aware of the matter said. Exports to Iran saw a downward spiral since November last year.
'The favourable rupee-dollar exchange rate, there are opportunities we can tap.'
Of Trump's reciprocal tariffs and trade deals
The country's exports edged up 1 per cent to $38.45 billion in December 2023 while the trade deficit narrowed to a three-month low of $19.8 billion, official data released on Monday showed. Imports declined by 4.85 per cent to $58.25 billion in December last year due to a dip in crude oil shipments. The previous low in trade deficit - the difference between imports and exports - was recorded in September at $19.37 billion.
'Geopolitical stability could remove the crude oil risk premium.'
'The market's nervousness ahead of anticipated US tariffs has led to a significant downturn in Indian equities.'
Soft oil prices are expected to persist in 2015 and will be accompanied by significant real income shifts from oil-exporting to oil-importing countries.
Fitch Ratings on Monday said India's steady GDP growth outlook, improved banking sector's financial health and expected interest-rate cuts in 2025 will support credit access for corporates in FY26.
'Trump is good news for us. Energy poverty is real, and fossil fuels are the answer.'
Wheat production during the current season is expected to be better than last year provided the weather remains favourable over the next few weeks, said senior industry executives. The weather had turned uncharacteristically hot in the latter half of last month, but owing to strong winds, the chill has returned in the last few days.
Trump spoke approvingly of his recent telephone conversation with Xi Jinping. This could indicate the possibility of America and China reaching some level of tactical accommodation, which would not be good news for India, points out Ambassador Shyam Saran, a former foreign secretary.
India's trade account could come under pressure and there could be an inflation push if crude oil prices remain above the $90 per barrel (Brent) for a prolonged period since India imports over 85 per cent of its oil and roughly 50 per cent of its gas. A rebound in economic activity is bound to lead to higher fuel demand. While India is the third-largest importer of crude, it is a net exporter of refined products, which helps to compensate to some degree.
'If you compare the data from 2017 and 2023 of the US imports from the world and China, you will see that the US was a complete loser in the trade war, and China was a complete gainer.'
Senior officials of India and the US will begin three-day talks on the proposed bilateral trade agreement in New Delhi on Wednesday amid threats of reciprocal tariffs from the Trump-administration, an official said. To formally start the negotiations on the pact, Assistant US Trade Representative for South and Central Asia Brendan Lynch, along with a team of officials, is in New Delhi.
The government has cut the windfall profit tax on crude oil produced in the country while the levy on exports of diesel and ATF has been hiked, an official notification said. The tax, levied in the form of special additional excise duty or SAED, on domestically produced crude oil was reduced to Rs 6,700 per tonne from Rs 7,100 a tonne. SAED on the export of diesel was increased to Rs 6 per litre from Rs 5.50 a litre and on jet fuel or ATF to Rs 4 per litre from Rs 2, the notification said.
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